Today / TPS vs VPS

TPS vs VPS Prediction

Saturday, May 30, 2026

TPS

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

VPS

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.2%0-114.4%0-24.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.5%1-112.1%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.2%2-15.1%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.3%3-11.4%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% — — —

Draw 35.5% — — —

Away win 27.7% — — —

Over 2.5 32.7% — — —

Over 3.5 14.4% — — —

BTTS 44.4% — — —

Home O1.5 20.5% — — —

Away O1.5 12.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.4%

D 36% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.2%

#2 1–0✓ 19.5%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 0–1 14.4%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TPS0.8

VPS0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.7% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TPS · PPG 2.50

VPS · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=36.8%

Win probability 1X2

TPS (H) 36.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

VPS (A) 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TPS face VPS on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TPS a 37% chance, the draw 36% and VPS 28%, so TPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for TPS and 0.6 for VPS (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TPS are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.25 for VPS. This match finished 1-0.

TPS vs VPS Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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