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Skelleftea vs Taftea Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:00

Skelleftea

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Taftea

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.1%0-23.1%0-32.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-03.3%1-16.7%1-26.7%1-34.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.6%2-17.3%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.6%3-15.3%3-25.3%3-33.5%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.8%4+-24.8%4+-33.2%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 59.5% 1.68 -32.6%

Draw 20.5% 25.0% 4.00 -10.8%

Away win 39.4% 26.0% 3.85 +51.7%

Over 2.5 72.7% 70.4% 1.42 +3.2%

Over 3.5 45.5% 48.8% 2.05 -6.7%

BTTS 63.9% 70.4% 1.42 -9.3%

Home O1.5 64.1% 67.6% 1.48 -5.1%

Away O1.5 59.5% 43.5% 2.30 +36.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -30.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.9%

H 40% / xG 2.2-2.0 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.7%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skelleftea2.2

Taftea2.0

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SKELLEFTEA · PPG 1.33

TAFTEA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.00) strong but model favors Home (P=40.1%)

Win probability 1X2

Skelleftea (H) 40.1%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -32.6%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.8%

Taftea (A) 39.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +51.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skelleftea face Taftea in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skelleftea a 40% chance, the draw 21% and Taftea 39%, so Skelleftea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Skelleftea and 2.0 for Taftea (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skelleftea are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Taftea. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +51.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Skelleftea vs Taftea Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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