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Vindbjart vs Madla Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:00

Vindbjart

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Madla

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.4%0-25.1%0-32.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-06.4%1-110.3%1-28.3%1-34.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.3%2-26.7%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.8%3-14.5%3-23.6%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.6%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 52.4% 1.91 -32.4%

Draw 22.3% 25.6% 3.90 -7.8%

Away win 42.2% 33.3% 3.00 +26.6%

Over 2.5 64.1% 73.5% 1.36 -12.8%

Over 3.5 39.5% 53.8% 1.86 -26.5%

BTTS 61.0% 76.3% 1.31 -20.1%

Home O1.5 48.1% 65.4% 1.53 -26.4%

Away O1.5 48.1% 52.4% 1.91 -8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.0%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 2–2✓ 6.7%

#5 0–0 3.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vindbjart1.6

Madla1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VINDBJART · PPG 2.33

MADLA · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Vindbjart (H) 35.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -32.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.8%

Madla (A) 42.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vindbjart face Madla in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vindbjart a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Madla 42%, so Madla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vindbjart and 1.6 for Madla (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vindbjart are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.75 for Madla. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Vindbjart vs Madla Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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