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Staal Jørpeland vs Haugesund II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Matchday 16 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 16:00

Staal Jørpeland

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Haugesund II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.1%0-22.1%0-31.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-02.6%1-15.3%1-25.4%1-33.6%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.4%2-16.8%2-26.9%2-34.6%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.9%3-15.8%3-25.8%3-33.9%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-16.8%4+-26.8%4+-34.6%4+-4+3.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% — — —

Draw 20.1% — — —

Away win 28.1% — — —

Over 2.5 72.7% — — —

Over 3.5 53.9% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.4%

H 52% / xG 2.5-2.0 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 2–1 6.8%

#3 1–1 5.3%

#4 3–2 5.8%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Staal Jørpeland2.5

Haugesund II2.0

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.9%

Form & verdict PPG

STAAL JØRPELAND · PPG 1.00

HAUGESUND II · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Staal Jørpeland (H) 51.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Haugesund II (A) 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Staal Jørpeland face Haugesund II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Staal Jørpeland a 52% chance, the draw 20% and Haugesund II 28%, so Staal Jørpeland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Staal Jørpeland and 2.0 for Haugesund II (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Staal Jørpeland are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Haugesund II.

Staal Jørpeland vs Haugesund II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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