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Vindbjart vs Hinna Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Vindbjart

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

UPCOMING

Hinna

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 86% chance

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.7%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.4%1-12.7%1-21.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.2%2 2-04.9%2-15.3%2-22.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.5%3-17.1%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-019.0%4+-120.8%4+-211.4%4+-34.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.4% 84.7% 1.18 -13.4%

Draw 14.1% 11.8% 8.50 +11.9%

Away win 12.5% 10.5% 9.50 +11.3%

Over 2.5 83.0% 87.7% 1.14 -5.4%

Over 3.5 58.7% 73.5% 1.36 -20.2%

BTTS 63.5% 66.2% 1.51 -4.1%

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 33.2% 29.2% 3.42 +13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.5%

H 73% / xG 4.0-1.1 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 7.2%

#2 3–1 7.1%

#3 4–0 6.5%

#4 3–0 6.5%

#5 5–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vindbjart4.0

Hinna1.1

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.0% · O3.5 PROB 58.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VINDBJART · PPG 2.12

HINNA · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

86%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.92 for Home, form 2.12 vs 0.78 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vindbjart (H) 73.4%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -13.4%

Draw 14.1%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +11.9%

Hinna (A) 12.5%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vindbjart face Hinna in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vindbjart a 73% chance, the draw 14% and Hinna 13%, so Vindbjart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.0 for Vindbjart and 1.1 for Hinna (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vindbjart are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.78 for Hinna. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.5%.

Vindbjart vs Hinna Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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