Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 / Vag vs Staal Jorpeland

Vag vs Staal Jorpeland Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Vag

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Staal Jorpeland

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.0%0-25.2%0-33.1%0-4+2.0%1 1-05.5%1-19.7%1-28.5%1-35.0%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.9%2-26.9%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.4%3-14.3%3-23.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.5%4+-22.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 50.0% 2.00 -22.8%

Draw 22.6% 25.0% 4.00 -5.8%

Away win 38.8% 36.4% 2.75 +6.7%

Over 2.5 64.1% 76.9% 1.30 -16.7%

Over 3.5 42.0% 57.8% 1.73 -27.3%

BTTS 63.4% 78.1% 1.28 -18.9%

Home O1.5 48.3% 67.1% 1.49 -28.0%

Away O1.5 52.3% 56.5% 1.77 -7.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

A 39% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vag1.6

Staal Jorpeland1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VAG · PPG 1.50

STAAL JORPELAND · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Vag (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -22.8%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.8%

Staal Jorpeland (A) 38.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vag face Staal Jorpeland in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vag a 39% chance, the draw 23% and Staal Jorpeland 39%, so Staal Jorpeland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vag and 1.8 for Staal Jorpeland (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vag are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Staal Jorpeland. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Vag vs Staal Jorpeland Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 Predictions