Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland / IFK Lulea vs IFK Umea

IFK Lulea vs IFK Umea Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:00

IFK Lulea

PPG 2.33 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

IFK Umea

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 91.8% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.5%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.2%1-11.9%1-20.5%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-08.6%2-14.0%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.8%3-15.5%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-037.1%4+-117.4%4+-24.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.9% 90.9% 1.10 -22.0%

Draw 20.3% 14.3% 7.00 +25.3%

Away win 8.8% 4.8% 21.00 +50.9%

Over 2.5 72.7% 76.9% 1.30 -5.5%

Over 3.5 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

BTTS 47.2% 45.5% 2.20 +3.8%

Home O1.5 91.8% 85.5% 1.17 +7.4%

Away O1.5 8.1% 21.1% 4.75 -36.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -30.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.2%

H 71% / xG 4.1-0.5 / O2.5 73% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 12.2%

#2 3–0 11.8%

#3 5–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 4–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Lulea4.1

IFK Umea0.5

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK LULEA · PPG 2.33

IFK UMEA · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

IFK Lulea (H) 70.9%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -22.0%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +25.3%

IFK Umea (A) 8.8%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV +50.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Lulea face IFK Umea in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Lulea a 71% chance, the draw 20% and IFK Umea 9%, so IFK Lulea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for IFK Lulea and 0.5 for IFK Umea (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Lulea are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.00 for IFK Umea. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +50.9%. This match finished 6-1.

IFK Lulea vs IFK Umea Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland Predictions