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Friska Viljor vs Lucksta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:00

Friska Viljor

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lucksta

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.0%0-23.3%0-32.5%0-4+2.3%1 1-02.9%1-16.3%1-27.0%1-35.1%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.0%2-16.6%2-27.2%2-35.3%2-4+4.9%3 3-02.1%3-14.6%3-25.0%3-33.7%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.8%4+-24.2%4+-33.1%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 53.5% 1.87 -29.7%

Draw 20.9% 29.9% 3.35 -18.0%

Away win 41.5% 30.3% 3.30 +37.0%

Over 2.5 67.2% — — —

Over 3.5 45.5% — — —

BTTS 64.0% — — —

Home O1.5 61.6% — — —

Away O1.5 64.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -30.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob64.0%

A 42% / xG 2.1-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.3%

#2 2–2 7.2%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 2–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Friska Viljor2.1

Lucksta2.2

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FRISKA VILJOR · PPG 1.00

LUCKSTA · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Friska Viljor (H) 37.6%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -29.7%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -18.0%

Lucksta (A) 41.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +37.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Friska Viljor face Lucksta in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Friska Viljor a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Lucksta 42%, so Lucksta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Friska Viljor and 2.2 for Lucksta (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Friska Viljor are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Lucksta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.0%. This match finished 3-3.

Friska Viljor vs Lucksta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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