Today / BFA Vilnius vs Jonava

BFA Vilnius vs Jonava Prediction

Saturday, May 30, 2026

BFA Vilnius

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Jonava

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-18.2%0-25.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.3%1-111.7%1-28.3%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-18.4%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.8%3-14.0%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 36.2% — — —

Over 2.5 60.1% — — —

Over 3.5 36.2% — — —

BTTS 61.0% — — —

Home O1.5 41.9% — — —

Away O1.5 41.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.0%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.8%

#5 1–0✓ 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BFA Vilnius1.4

Jonava1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BFA VILNIUS · PPG 1.40

JONAVA · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

BFA Vilnius (H) 38.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Jonava (A) 36.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

BFA Vilnius face Jonava on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BFA Vilnius a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Jonava 36%, so BFA Vilnius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for BFA Vilnius and 1.4 for Jonava (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BFA Vilnius are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for Jonava. This match finished 1-0.

BFA Vilnius vs Jonava Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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