Today / Shenzhen vs Qingdao Hainiu

Shenzhen vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction

Saturday, May 30, 2026

Shenzhen

PPG 1.43 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Qingdao Hainiu

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=45.5%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.3%0-24.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.8%1-111.5%1-27.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.1%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.7%3-14.8%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 28.7% — — —

Over 2.5 56.6% — — —

Over 3.5 36.2% — — —

BTTS 58.9% — — —

Home O1.5 46.8% — — —

Away O1.5 37.6% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen1.6

Qingdao Hainiu1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN · PPG 1.43

QINGDAO HAINIU · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=45.5%

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Qingdao Hainiu (A) 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen face Qingdao Hainiu on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Qingdao Hainiu 29%, so Shenzhen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Shenzhen and 1.3 for Qingdao Hainiu (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.57 for Qingdao Hainiu. This match finished 3-2.

Shenzhen vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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