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Lithuania - A Lyga
Regular Season - 16
Telsiai Central Stadium· Telsiai
Saturday, May 30, 2026
11:15
Dziugas Telsiai
PPG 1.71
4-0
MISS
Panevezys
PPG 0.86
Home· +15.9%
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
52.7%
Odds: 2.20
EV: +15.9%
Draw
24.6%
Odds: 3.10
EV: -14.2%
Away
22.7%
Odds: 2.90
EV: -20.5%
Model lean:
Home
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
48.5%
Odds: 1.95
-5.4%
Over 3.5
27.9%
Odds: 3.40
-3.1%
BTTS
51.1%
Odds: 1.70
-13.1%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘
BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
1-0
✘
3rd
2-0
✘
4th
0-0
✘
5th
2-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Dziugas Telsiai
1.62
Panevezys
0.80
Model Suggestion
Home
+15.9%
ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market:
Home.
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=52.7%