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Dziugas Telsiai vs Panevezys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:15

Dziugas Telsiai

PPG 1.71 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Panevezys

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+15.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-17.1%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.4%1-111.5%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.3%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.3%3-15.0%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 45.5% 2.20 +15.9%

Draw 24.6% 32.3% 3.10 -14.2%

Away win 22.7% 34.5% 2.90 -20.5%

Over 2.5 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

Over 3.5 27.9% 29.4% 3.40 -3.1%

BTTS 51.1% 58.8% 1.70 -13.1%

Home O1.5 48.2% 45.5% 2.20 +6.0%

Away O1.5 19.2% 36.4% 2.75 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.1%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 2–0 11.7%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dziugas Telsiai1.6

Panevezys0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DZIUGAS TELSIAI · PPG 1.71

PANEVEZYS · PPG 0.86

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=52.7%

Win probability 1X2

Dziugas Telsiai (H) 52.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +15.9%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.2%

Panevezys (A) 22.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -20.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dziugas Telsiai face Panevezys in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dziugas Telsiai a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Panevezys 23%, so Dziugas Telsiai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dziugas Telsiai and 0.8 for Panevezys (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dziugas Telsiai are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.86 for Panevezys. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 4-0.

Dziugas Telsiai vs Panevezys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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