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Smedby vs Farsta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Smedby

PPG 2.40 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Farsta

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+22.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.2%0-21.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.4%1-16.0%1-24.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.4%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.7%3-17.7%3-25.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-110.5%4+-27.2%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 48.8% 2.05 +14.0%

Draw 21.0% 26.3% 3.80 -12.1%

Away win 23.3% 34.5% 2.90 -19.5%

Over 2.5 65.8% 71.4% 1.40 -7.9%

Over 3.5 45.3% 50.0% 2.00 -9.4%

BTTS 63.4% 74.1% 1.35 -14.4%

Home O1.5 76.4% 62.5% 1.60 +22.2%

Away O1.5 39.7% 51.8% 1.93 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 56% / xG 2.8-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 3–1 7.7%

#3 1–1✓ 6.0%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 2–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smedby2.8

Farsta1.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SMEDBY · PPG 2.40

FARSTA · PPG 0.60

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=55.6%

Win probability 1X2

Smedby (H) 55.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +14.0%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.1%

Farsta (A) 23.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Smedby face Farsta in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smedby a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Farsta 23%, so Smedby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Smedby and 1.4 for Farsta (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smedby are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.60 for Farsta. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Smedby vs Farsta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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