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Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand Saturday, May 30, 2026 11:00 
Smedby PPG 2.40 
Farsta PPG 0.60
Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand Saturday, May 30, 2026 11:00 Smedby PPG 2.401-1 HIT CS3
Farsta PPG 0.60Home + Over 2.5· +40.8% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 65.8% Odds: 1.40 -7.9%
Over 3.5 45.3% Odds: 2.00 -9.4%
BTTS 63.4% Odds: 1.35 -14.4%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 2-1 ✘
2nd 3-1 ✘
3rd 1-1 ✔
4th 2-0 ✘
5th 2-2 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Smedby 2.77
Farsta 1.37
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -7.9% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-7.9%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 95%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=55.6%