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Forward vs Ragsved Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Forward

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ragsved

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.0%0-24.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.8%1-112.0%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.0%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.7%3-14.5%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 44.4% 2.25 +2.6%

Draw 25.8% 27.0% 3.70 -2.7%

Away win 28.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.9%

Over 2.5 54.5% 63.7% 1.57 -14.4%

Over 3.5 32.2% 40.8% 2.45 -21.1%

BTTS 55.3% 67.6% 1.48 -18.2%

Home O1.5 44.4% 54.1% 1.85 -17.9%

Away O1.5 34.7% 47.6% 2.10 -27.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.3%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forward1.5

Ragsved1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FORWARD · PPG 2.00

RAGSVED · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Forward (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +2.6%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.7%

Ragsved (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forward face Ragsved in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forward a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Ragsved 29%, so Forward are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Forward and 1.2 for Ragsved (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forward are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Ragsved. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 4-3.

Forward vs Ragsved Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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