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Bjarg vs Eik Tonsberg Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Bjarg

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Eik Tonsberg

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.2%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.6%1-16.1%1-23.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.9%2-18.7%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.4%3-18.2%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-111.5%4+-26.3%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.6% 71.4% 1.40 -15.2%

Draw 19.7% 20.0% 5.00 -0.9%

Away win 19.7% 18.2% 5.50 +5.0%

Over 2.5 65.8% 75.2% 1.33 -12.5%

Over 3.5 45.5% 54.1% 1.85 -15.8%

BTTS 62.3% 69.0% 1.45 -9.7%

Home O1.5 77.3% 76.9% 1.30 +0.5%

Away O1.5 30.2% 36.4% 2.75 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -22.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.3%

H 61% / xG 2.8-1.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0✓ 7.9%

#4 3–0 7.4%

#5 1–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bjarg2.8

Eik Tonsberg1.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BJARG · PPG 1.00

EIK TONSBERG · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Bjarg (H) 60.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -15.2%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -0.9%

Eik Tonsberg (A) 19.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bjarg face Eik Tonsberg in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bjarg a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Eik Tonsberg 20%, so Bjarg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Bjarg and 1.1 for Eik Tonsberg (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bjarg are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Eik Tonsberg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Bjarg vs Eik Tonsberg Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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