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NE MetroStars vs Campbelltown Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 09:45

NE MetroStars

PPG 1.60 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Campbelltown

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.0%0-21.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.0%1-15.7%1-24.1%1-32.0%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.6%2-18.1%2-25.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.3%3-17.6%3-25.5%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-110.7%4+-27.7%4+-33.7%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 67.6% 1.48 -15.0%

Draw 21.4% 23.1% 4.33 -4.4%

Away win 21.2% 21.1% 4.75 +0.4%

Over 2.5 66.1% 69.4% 1.44 -4.8%

Over 3.5 45.5% 50.0% 2.00 -9.0%

BTTS 63.4% 66.7% 1.50 -4.9%

Home O1.5 77.3% 71.4% 1.40 +8.2%

Away O1.5 42.3% 33.3% 3.00 +26.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 57% / xG 2.8-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 7.6%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 2–2 5.8%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NE MetroStars2.8

Campbelltown1.4

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.1% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NE METROSTARS · PPG 1.60

CAMPBELLTOWN · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

NE MetroStars (H) 57.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -15.0%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -4.4%

Campbelltown (A) 21.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

NE MetroStars face Campbelltown in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NE MetroStars a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Campbelltown 21%, so NE MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for NE MetroStars and 1.4 for Campbelltown (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NE MetroStars are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.17 for Campbelltown. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +26.9%. This match finished 4-0.

NE MetroStars vs Campbelltown Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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