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Australia - South Australia NPL logo Australia flag Australia - South Australia NPL Regular Season - 12 TK Shutter Reserve· Adelaide Saturday, May 30, 2026 09:45
NE MetroStars logo NE MetroStars PPG 1.60
4-0 MISS
Campbelltown logo Campbelltown PPG 1.17
AwayO15· +26.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 57.4%
Odds: 1.48 EV: -15.0%
Draw 21.4%
Odds: 4.33 EV: -4.4%
Away 21.2%
Odds: 4.75 EV: +0.4%
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 66.1% Odds: 1.44 -4.8%
Over 3.5 45.5% Odds: 2.00 -9.0%
BTTS 63.4% Odds: 1.50 -4.9%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1
2nd 3-1
3rd 1-1
4th 2-2
5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

NE MetroStars
2.82
Campbelltown
1.44

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 -4.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -4.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: AwayO15 (+26.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%
O2.5/Under 70%
BTTS/No 63%
Score Hit 23%
ROI -30.0%
Bet Hit 50% (8 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

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