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Brunswick Juven vs Eltham Redbacks Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 09:00

Brunswick Juven

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Eltham Redbacks

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.6%0-23.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.4%1-110.4%1-26.5%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.8%3-15.9%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.2%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 51.3% 1.95 -2.9%

Draw 22.6% 27.8% 3.60 -11.2%

Away win 27.7% 33.3% 3.00 -10.1%

Over 2.5 64.1% 69.4% 1.44 -7.7%

Over 3.5 39.5% 49.0% 2.04 -19.4%

BTTS 61.0% 71.4% 1.40 -14.6%

Home O1.5 55.2% 62.1% 1.61 -11.1%

Away O1.5 35.4% 48.3% 2.07 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.0%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brunswick Juven1.9

Eltham Redbacks1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUNSWICK JUVEN · PPG 2.00

ELTHAM REDBACKS · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Brunswick Juven (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -2.9%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.2%

Eltham Redbacks (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brunswick Juven face Eltham Redbacks in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brunswick Juven a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Eltham Redbacks 28%, so Brunswick Juven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Brunswick Juven and 1.2 for Eltham Redbacks (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brunswick Juven are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Eltham Redbacks. This match finished 2-1.

Brunswick Juven vs Eltham Redbacks Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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