Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / M. Srbija vs Langwarrin

M. Srbija vs Langwarrin Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 08:15

M. Srbija

PPG 2.14 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Langwarrin

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.6%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.0%1-19.5%1-25.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.7%3-16.7%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.6%4+-23.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 60.6% 1.65 -11.4%

Draw 22.6% 25.6% 3.90 -7.1%

Away win 23.6% 25.6% 3.90 -4.8%

Over 2.5 64.1% 71.4% 1.40 -10.3%

Over 3.5 39.5% 52.6% 1.90 -24.9%

BTTS 61.0% 73.5% 1.36 -17.0%

Home O1.5 61.2% 71.4% 1.40 -14.3%

Away O1.5 33.4% 42.6% 2.35 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.0%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

M. Srbija2.1

Langwarrin1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

M. SRBIJA · PPG 2.14

LANGWARRIN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=53.7%

Win probability 1X2

M. Srbija (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -11.4%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.1%

Langwarrin (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Srbija face Langwarrin in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Srbija a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Langwarrin 24%, so M. Srbija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for M. Srbija and 1.2 for Langwarrin (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Srbija are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.00 for Langwarrin. This match finished 0-0.

M. Srbija vs Langwarrin Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions