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Altona Magic vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 08:15

Altona Magic

PPG 0.88 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Oakleigh C.

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-110.6%0-211.8%0-38.8%0-4+8.3%1 1-03.8%1-18.6%1-29.6%1-37.2%1-4+6.8%2 2-01.6%2-13.5%2-23.9%2-32.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-21.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% 15.4% 6.50 -7.7%

Draw 20.8% 22.7% 4.40 -5.1%

Away win 65.8% 71.4% 1.40 -7.9%

Over 2.5 60.1% 65.4% 1.53 -8.1%

Over 3.5 36.2% 42.6% 2.35 -14.9%

BTTS 52.0% 59.9% 1.67 -13.2%

Home O1.5 19.6% 28.2% 3.55 -18.3%

Away O1.5 65.5% 71.4% 1.40 -8.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob52.0%

A 66% / xG 0.8-2.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2✓ 11.8%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 9.6%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 0–3 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altona Magic0.8

Oakleigh C.2.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 0.88

OAKLEIGH C. · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs Home POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Altona Magic (H) 13.4%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -7.7%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -5.1%

Oakleigh C. (A) 65.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altona Magic face Oakleigh C. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altona Magic a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Oakleigh C. 66%, so Oakleigh C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Altona Magic and 2.2 for Oakleigh C. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altona Magic are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 2.14 for Oakleigh C.. This match finished 0-2.

Altona Magic vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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