Today / Adamstown R. vs Newcastle O.

Adamstown R. vs Newcastle O. Prediction

Saturday, May 30, 2026

Adamstown R.

PPG 0.71 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Newcastle O.

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.4%0-25.7%0-34.0%0-4+3.5%1 1-03.9%1-18.3%1-28.9%1-36.3%1-4+5.4%2 2-03.1%2-16.5%2-26.9%2-34.9%2-4+4.2%3 3-01.6%3-13.4%3-23.6%3-32.5%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.8%4+-22.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 45.2% — — —

Over 2.5 65.8% — — —

Over 3.5 43.1% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 46.0% — — —

Away O1.5 62.6% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.4%

A 45% / xG 1.6-2.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adamstown R.1.6

Newcastle O.2.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ADAMSTOWN R. · PPG 0.71

NEWCASTLE O. · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Adamstown R. (H) 32.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Newcastle O. (A) 45.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Adamstown R. face Newcastle O. on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adamstown R. a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Newcastle O. 45%, so Newcastle O. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Adamstown R. and 2.1 for Newcastle O. (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adamstown R. are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.83 for Newcastle O.. This match finished 2-0.

Adamstown R. vs Newcastle O. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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