Today / Jordan - League / Sama Al Sarhan vs Al Ahli

Sama Al Sarhan vs Al Ahli Prediction— Jordan - League

Regular Season - 24 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 14:00

Sama Al Sarhan

PPG 0.27 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Al Ahli

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-117.3%0-211.8%0-35.4%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.9%1-112.1%1-28.3%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-03.1%2-14.3%2-22.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.7%3-11.0%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.2% 24.4% 4.10 -21.3%

Draw 28.0% 29.9% 3.35 -6.2%

Away win 52.8% 55.6% 1.80 -5.0%

Over 2.5 34.1% 48.8% 2.05 -30.1%

Over 3.5 15.5% 27.0% 3.70 -42.6%

BTTS 37.5% 54.1% 1.85 -30.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 34.6%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob37.5%

A 53% / xG 0.7-1.4 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.3%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 0–2 11.8%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sama Al Sarhan0.7

Al Ahli1.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.1% · O3.5 PROB 15.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMA AL SARHAN · PPG 0.27

AL AHLI · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs Home POOR (0.27)

Win probability 1X2

Sama Al Sarhan (H) 19.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -21.3%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.2%

Al Ahli (A) 52.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sama Al Sarhan face Al Ahli in Jordan - League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sama Al Sarhan a 19% chance, the draw 28% and Al Ahli 53%, so Al Ahli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sama Al Sarhan and 1.4 for Al Ahli (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sama Al Sarhan are averaging 0.27 points per game versus 1.17 for Al Ahli. This match finished 2-3.

Sama Al Sarhan vs Al Ahli Prediction— Jordan - League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Jordan - League Predictions