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Para Hills vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 05:30

Para Hills

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Croydon Kings

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-15.9%0-28.8%0-38.8%0-4+14.0%1 1-01.8%1-15.4%1-28.2%1-38.2%1-4+13.0%2 2-00.8%2-12.5%2-23.8%2-33.8%2-4+6.1%3 3-00.3%3-10.8%3-21.2%3-31.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% — — —

Draw 20.6% — — —

Away win 66.0% — — —

Over 2.5 65.8% — — —

Over 3.5 43.1% — — —

BTTS 55.3% — — —

Home O1.5 23.8% — — —

Away O1.5 80.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob55.3%

A 66% / xG 0.9-3.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.8%

#2 0–2 8.8%

#3 1–3 8.2%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 0–4 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Para Hills0.9

Croydon Kings3.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PARA HILLS · PPG 0.33

CROYDON KINGS · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Para Hills (H) 13.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Croydon Kings (A) 66.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Para Hills face Croydon Kings in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Para Hills a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Croydon Kings 66%, so Croydon Kings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Para Hills and 3.0 for Croydon Kings (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Para Hills are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.75 for Croydon Kings. This match finished 1-5.

Para Hills vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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