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Adelaide Utd B vs Playford P. Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide Utd B

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Playford P.

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.8%0-24.1%0-32.9%0-4+2.5%1 1-03.4%1-17.3%1-27.7%1-35.4%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.2%2-16.9%2-27.3%2-35.1%2-4+4.5%3 3-02.0%3-14.3%3-24.6%3-33.2%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.1%4+-23.3%4+-32.4%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 46.5% 2.15 -19.8%

Draw 21.5% 25.6% 3.90 -9.7%

Away win 41.2% 40.0% 2.50 +3.0%

Over 2.5 65.8% 75.2% 1.33 -12.5%

Over 3.5 44.8% 57.1% 1.75 -21.6%

BTTS 63.4% 76.9% 1.30 -17.6%

Home O1.5 56.3% 61.7% 1.62 -8.8%

Away O1.5 62.5% 57.8% 1.73 +8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.4%

A 41% / xG 1.9-2.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 1–2 7.7%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Utd B1.9

Playford P.2.1

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE UTD B · PPG 1.40

PLAYFORD P. · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Utd B (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -19.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.7%

Playford P. (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Utd B face Playford P. in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Utd B a 37% chance, the draw 22% and Playford P. 41%, so Playford P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Adelaide Utd B and 2.1 for Playford P. (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Utd B are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.60 for Playford P.. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Adelaide Utd B vs Playford P. Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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