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Melbourne C. B vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 05:00

Melbourne C. B

PPG 1.29 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Dandenong City

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 57.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.4%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.1%1-110.3%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.4%3-16.2%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-14.6%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 57.8% 1.73 -2.6%

Draw 22.6% 26.3% 3.80 -8.5%

Away win 21.1% 25.6% 3.90 -10.6%

Over 2.5 54.8% 65.4% 1.53 -16.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 42.6% 2.35 -14.9%

BTTS 51.8% 66.7% 1.50 -22.3%

Home O1.5 57.0% 63.7% 1.57 -10.5%

Away O1.5 20.7% 39.2% 2.55 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.8%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne C. B1.9

Dandenong City0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE C. B · PPG 1.29

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne C. B (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -2.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.5%

Dandenong City (A) 21.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne C. B face Dandenong City in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne C. B a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Dandenong City 21%, so Melbourne C. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Melbourne C. B and 0.8 for Dandenong City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne C. B are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.67 for Dandenong City. This match finished 0-1.

Melbourne C. B vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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