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Cobresal vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 22:00

Cobresal

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Nublense

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.6%0-26.7%0-33.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.4%1-111.5%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.0%2-17.7%2-26.0%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.2%3-13.4%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 35.5% 2.82 +5.5%

Draw 25.6% 29.9% 3.35 -8.5%

Away win 37.0% 43.5% 2.30 -14.9%

Over 2.5 60.1% 52.6% 1.90 +14.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 31.3% 3.20 +15.8%

BTTS 61.0% 59.9% 1.67 +1.9%

Home O1.5 38.6% 39.2% 2.55 -1.6%

Away O1.5 46.0% 45.5% 2.20 +1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.0%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 0–1✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobresal1.3

Nublense1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

COBRESAL · PPG 1.50

NUBLENSE · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Cobresal (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV +5.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.5%

Nublense (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobresal face Nublense in Chile - Primera División on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobresal a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Nublense 37%, so Cobresal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cobresal and 1.6 for Nublense (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobresal are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Nublense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Cobresal vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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