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Berga vs Solvesborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 10 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:30

Berga

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Solvesborg

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.4%0-22.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.0%1-17.7%1-26.0%1-33.1%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.6%2-18.7%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.2%3-16.6%3-25.1%3-32.7%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-16.4%4+-25.0%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 55.6% 1.80 -2.4%

Draw 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -9.6%

Away win 23.9% 28.2% 3.55 -9.1%

Over 2.5 65.8% 67.6% 1.48 -2.6%

Over 3.5 43.1% 45.5% 2.20 -5.2%

BTTS 63.4% 69.4% 1.44 -8.7%

Home O1.5 66.1% 63.7% 1.57 +3.8%

Away O1.5 46.0% 43.5% 2.30 +5.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.4%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Berga2.3

Solvesborg1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BERGA · PPG 1.00

SOLVESBORG · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Berga (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -2.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.6%

Solvesborg (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Berga face Solvesborg in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Berga a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Solvesborg 24%, so Berga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Berga and 1.6 for Solvesborg (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Berga are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Solvesborg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 3-2.

Berga vs Solvesborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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