Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Vaxjo Norra vs Rappe

Vaxjo Norra vs Rappe Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 10 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:00

Vaxjo Norra

PPG 2.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Rappe

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 75.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-12.2%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.0%1-15.9%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-18.0%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.2%3-17.2%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.8%4+-19.4%4+-22.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.9% 67.6% 1.48 +2.0%

Draw 21.8% 25.0% 4.00 -7.7%

Away win 9.3% 17.2% 5.80 -27.6%

Over 2.5 64.1% 65.4% 1.53 -1.9%

Over 3.5 40.4% 43.5% 2.30 -7.1%

BTTS 47.2% 63.7% 1.57 -25.9%

Home O1.5 75.1% 69.4% 1.44 +8.1%

Away O1.5 11.9% 31.3% 3.20 -37.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 69% / xG 2.7-0.6 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.6%

#2 3–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 4–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaxjo Norra2.7

Rappe0.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VAXJO NORRA · PPG 2.50

RAPPE · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vaxjo Norra (H) 68.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV +2.0%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.7%

Rappe (A) 9.3%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -27.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaxjo Norra face Rappe in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaxjo Norra a 69% chance, the draw 22% and Rappe 9%, so Vaxjo Norra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Vaxjo Norra and 0.6 for Rappe (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaxjo Norra are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Rappe. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Vaxjo Norra vs Rappe Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions