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Nacka Iliria vs Nykoping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 10 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:00

Nacka Iliria

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Nykoping

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-19.0%0-29.7%0-37.0%0-4+6.2%1 1-04.3%1-19.2%1-29.9%1-37.1%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.2%2-14.7%2-25.0%2-33.6%2-4+3.2%3 3-00.7%3-11.6%3-21.7%3-31.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.6% 31.3% 3.20 -24.3%

Draw 22.9% 27.4% 3.65 -9.8%

Away win 58.4% 51.3% 1.95 +13.9%

Over 2.5 61.9% 63.7% 1.57 -2.8%

Over 3.5 38.3% 41.7% 2.40 -8.1%

BTTS 55.3% 67.6% 1.48 -18.2%

Home O1.5 27.0% 43.5% 2.30 -22.7%

Away O1.5 63.4% 58.8% 1.70 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob55.3%

A 58% / xG 1.0-2.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2✓ 9.7%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 1–3 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacka Iliria1.0

Nykoping2.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NACKA ILIRIA · PPG 1.50

NYKOPING · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Nacka Iliria (H) 18.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -24.3%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.8%

Nykoping (A) 58.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacka Iliria face Nykoping in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacka Iliria a 19% chance, the draw 23% and Nykoping 58%, so Nykoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Nacka Iliria and 2.2 for Nykoping (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacka Iliria are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.75 for Nykoping. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Nacka Iliria vs Nykoping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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