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TransINVEST vs Hegelmann L. Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 16:00

TransINVEST

PPG 1.71 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Hegelmann L.

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-15.7%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.0%1-110.5%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.4%3-16.0%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-14.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 57.8% 1.73 -6.4%

Draw 22.8% 29.4% 3.40 -13.5%

Away win 23.1% 23.8% 4.20 -1.8%

Over 2.5 54.5% 58.8% 1.70 -7.3%

Over 3.5 32.2% 38.2% 2.62 -15.6%

BTTS 52.0% 60.6% 1.65 -14.2%

Home O1.5 55.2% 59.9% 1.67 -7.8%

Away O1.5 19.3% 30.8% 3.25 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.0%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 2–1✓ 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TransINVEST1.9

Hegelmann L.0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANSINVEST · PPG 1.71

HEGELMANN L. · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=54.1%

Win probability 1X2

TransINVEST (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -6.4%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.5%

Hegelmann L. (A) 23.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

TransINVEST face Hegelmann L. in Lithuania - A Lyga on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TransINVEST a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Hegelmann L. 23%, so TransINVEST are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for TransINVEST and 0.8 for Hegelmann L. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TransINVEST are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.83 for Hegelmann L.. This match finished 2-1.

TransINVEST vs Hegelmann L. Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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