Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 / Råde vs Sarpsborg 08 B

Råde vs Sarpsborg 08 B Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Regular Season - 8 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 17:00

Råde

PPG 2.33 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Sarpsborg 08 B

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 6.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 91.2% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+50.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.1%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-00.6%1-10.7%1-20.4%1-30.1%1-4+0.1%2 2-01.7%2-11.9%2-21.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-13.7%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-026.0%4+-130.0%4+-217.3%4+-36.6%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 77.3% 1.42 +9.8%

Draw 15.7% 4.75 -15.3%

Away win 7.1% 4.75 -39.8%

Over 2.5 79.0% 1.25 -1.3%

Over 3.5 91.2% 1.65 +50.5%

BTTS 60.6% 1.37 -17.0%

Win probability 1X2

Råde (H) 77.3%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV +9.8%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -15.3%

Sarpsborg 08 B (A) 7.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -39.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)5.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.6%

H 77% / xG 5.7-1.2 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–1✓ 6.1%

#2 4–1 5.3%

#3 5–0 5.3%

#4 4–0 4.6%

#5 3–1 3.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Råde5.7

Sarpsborg 08 B1.2

COMBINED 6.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 91.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RÅDE · PPG 2.33

SARPSBORG 08 B · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Match Preview & Prediction

Råde face Sarpsborg 08 B in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Råde a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Sarpsborg 08 B 7%, so Råde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.7 for Råde and 1.2 for Sarpsborg 08 B (6.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Råde are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.25 for Sarpsborg 08 B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +50.5%. This match finished 5-1.

Råde vs Sarpsborg 08 B Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

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