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Lillehammer vs Rade Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:00

Lillehammer

PPG 3.00 · HOME

8 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Rade

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=47.7%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.9%0-21.2%0-31.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-01.1%1-12.8%1-23.7%1-33.2%1-4+3.8%2 2-01.6%2-14.3%2-25.6%2-34.8%2-4+5.8%3 3-01.7%3-14.3%3-25.6%3-34.9%3-4+5.9%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-17.0%4+-29.1%4+-37.9%4+-4+9.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% — — —

Draw 20.3% — — —

Away win 32.0% — — —

Over 2.5 80.0% — — —

Over 3.5 58.6% — — —

BTTS 65.9% — — —

Home O1.5 80.7% — — —

Away O1.5 73.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -56.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob65.9%

H 48% / xG 3.0-2.6 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.6%

#2 2–2 5.6%

#3 3–3 4.9%

#4 2–3 4.8%

#5 3–1 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lillehammer3.0

Rade2.6

COMBINED 5.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.0% · O3.5 PROB 58.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLEHAMMER · PPG 3.00

RADE · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=47.7%

Win probability 1X2

Lillehammer (H) 47.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rade (A) 32.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lillehammer face Rade in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lillehammer a 48% chance, the draw 20% and Rade 32%, so Lillehammer are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Lillehammer and 2.6 for Rade (5.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lillehammer are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Rade. This match finished 8-1.

Lillehammer vs Rade Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

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