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Gjovik-Lyn vs Elverum Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 12:00

Gjovik-Lyn

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Elverum

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.2%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-110.2%1-25.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.5%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.9%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 45.5% 2.20 +16.2%

Draw 24.5% 26.7% 3.75 -4.9%

Away win 22.8% 39.2% 2.55 -25.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 73.5% 1.36 -19.6%

Over 3.5 35.2% 55.6% 1.80 -36.6%

BTTS 54.6% 76.9% 1.30 -29.0%

Home O1.5 58.1% 61.0% 1.64 -4.7%

Away O1.5 28.1% 58.5% 1.71 -31.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -56.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0✓ 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gjovik-Lyn2.0

Elverum1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GJOVIK-LYN · PPG 3.00

ELVERUM · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=52.8%

Win probability 1X2

Gjovik-Lyn (H) 52.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +16.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.9%

Elverum (A) 22.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gjovik-Lyn face Elverum in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gjovik-Lyn a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Elverum 23%, so Gjovik-Lyn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Gjovik-Lyn and 1.0 for Elverum (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gjovik-Lyn are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Elverum. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Gjovik-Lyn vs Elverum Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions