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Pesch vs Bornheim Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 28 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 17:30

Pesch

PPG 0.46 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bornheim

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.31) vs Home POOR (0.46)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-12.5%0-24.7%0-35.9%0-4+14.8%1 1-00.8%1-13.2%1-25.9%1-37.4%1-4+18.5%2 2-00.5%2-12.0%2-23.7%2-34.6%2-4+11.6%3 3-00.2%3-10.8%3-21.5%3-31.9%3-4+4.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.0% — — —

Draw 20.4% — — —

Away win 65.6% — — —

Over 2.5 79.0% — — —

Over 3.5 73.5% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 35.6% — — —

Away O1.5 88.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob62.5%

A 66% / xG 1.3-3.7 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.4%

#2 1–4 6.9%

#3 1–2 5.9%

#4 0–3 5.9%

#5 0–4 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pesch1.3

Bornheim3.7

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 73.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PESCH · PPG 0.46

BORNHEIM · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.31) vs Home POOR (0.46)

Win probability 1X2

Pesch (H) 14.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bornheim (A) 65.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Pesch face Bornheim in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pesch a 14% chance, the draw 20% and Bornheim 66%, so Bornheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Pesch and 3.7 for Bornheim (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pesch are averaging 0.46 points per game versus 1.31 for Bornheim.

Pesch vs Bornheim Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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