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Stabaek vs Kongsvinger Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 15:00

Stabaek

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kongsvinger

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.0%0-25.3%0-33.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.4%1-19.6%1-28.6%1-35.1%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.4%2-17.8%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.4%3-14.2%3-23.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.5%4+-22.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 44.4% 2.25 -19.2%

Draw 24.3% 26.0% 3.85 -3.9%

Away win 39.9% 40.0% 2.50 -0.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 73.5% 1.36 -13.4%

Over 3.5 44.0% 51.8% 1.93 -15.1%

BTTS 59.8% 75.2% 1.33 -20.5%

Home O1.5 48.1% 59.9% 1.67 -19.7%

Away O1.5 53.0% 57.1% 1.75 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.8%

A 40% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stabaek1.6

Kongsvinger1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STABAEK · PPG 2.00

KONGSVINGER · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Stabaek (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.9%

Kongsvinger (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stabaek face Kongsvinger in Norway - 1. Division on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stabaek a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Kongsvinger 40%, so Kongsvinger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Stabaek and 1.8 for Kongsvinger (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stabaek are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Kongsvinger. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Stabaek vs Kongsvinger Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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