Today / Norway - 1. Division / Sandnes Ulf vs Sogndal

Sandnes Ulf vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 15:00

Sandnes Ulf

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sogndal

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.7%0-23.6%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.9%1-19.2%1-27.1%1-33.6%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.8%3-15.8%3-24.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.4%4+-23.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 40.0% 2.50 +22.8%

Draw 24.6% 27.4% 3.65 -6.1%

Away win 26.3% 42.6% 2.35 -22.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 67.6% 1.48 -5.4%

Over 3.5 46.2% 45.5% 2.20 +1.6%

BTTS 61.9% 71.4% 1.40 -13.3%

Home O1.5 58.0% 52.6% 1.90 +10.2%

Away O1.5 45.6% 54.6% 1.83 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.9%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandnes Ulf1.9

Sogndal1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDNES ULF · PPG 1.00

SOGNDAL · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sandnes Ulf (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +22.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.1%

Sogndal (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandnes Ulf face Sogndal in Norway - 1. Division on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandnes Ulf a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Sogndal 26%, so Sandnes Ulf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sandnes Ulf and 1.5 for Sogndal (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandnes Ulf are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Sogndal. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Sandnes Ulf vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 1. Division Predictions