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Haugesund vs Moss Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 15:00

Haugesund

PPG 2.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Moss

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 82.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+27.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.4%0-21.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.2%1-14.6%1-23.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.1%2-17.2%2-25.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.4%3-17.6%3-25.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-113.4%4+-29.6%4+-34.5%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 57.8% 1.73 +2.6%

Draw 20.3% 25.3% 3.95 -11.9%

Away win 20.4% 26.7% 3.75 -14.1%

Over 2.5 72.3% 67.6% 1.48 +7.0%

Over 3.5 67.4% 45.5% 2.20 +48.3%

BTTS 63.0% 69.0% 1.45 -8.6%

Home O1.5 82.5% 64.5% 1.55 +27.9%

Away O1.5 41.7% 41.7% 2.40 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.0%

H 59% / xG 3.2-1.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1✓ 7.6%

#2 2–1 7.2%

#3 4–1 6.1%

#4 3–2 5.4%

#5 3–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haugesund3.2

Moss1.4

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 67.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HAUGESUND · PPG 2.33

MOSS · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=59.3%

Win probability 1X2

Haugesund (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +2.6%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -11.9%

Moss (A) 20.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haugesund face Moss in Norway - 1. Division on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haugesund a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Moss 20%, so Haugesund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Haugesund and 1.4 for Moss (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haugesund are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Moss. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +48.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Haugesund vs Moss Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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