Today / Norway - 1. Division / Asane vs Raufoss

Asane vs Raufoss Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 15:00

Asane

PPG 0.75 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Raufoss

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.0%0-24.8%0-32.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.2%1-110.1%1-28.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-26.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.9%3-14.7%3-23.8%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.9%4+-22.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 41.7% 2.40 -5.0%

Draw 24.0% 28.6% 3.50 -9.6%

Away win 36.3% 40.0% 2.50 -9.3%

Over 2.5 61.4% 59.9% 1.67 +2.5%

Over 3.5 41.9% 38.2% 2.62 +9.8%

BTTS 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Home O1.5 50.1% 48.8% 2.05 +2.7%

Away O1.5 48.0% 47.6% 2.10 +0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.7%

H 40% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Asane1.7

Raufoss1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ASANE · PPG 0.75

RAUFOSS · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Asane (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -5.0%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.6%

Raufoss (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Asane face Raufoss in Norway - 1. Division on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Asane a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Raufoss 36%, so Asane are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Asane and 1.6 for Raufoss (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Asane are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Raufoss. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Asane vs Raufoss Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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