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Frechen vs Wegberg-Beeck Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 28 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 13:30

Frechen

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wegberg-Beeck

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.9%0-25.3%0-33.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.4%1-19.6%1-28.6%1-35.1%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.4%2-17.8%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.4%3-14.2%3-23.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.5%4+-22.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 39.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 44.2% — — —

BTTS 60.1% — — —

Home O1.5 48.2% — — —

Away O1.5 53.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob60.1%

A 40% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frechen1.6

Wegberg-Beeck1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FRECHEN · PPG 1.69

WEGBERG-BEECK · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Frechen (H) 35.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Wegberg-Beeck (A) 39.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Frechen face Wegberg-Beeck in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frechen a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Wegberg-Beeck 40%, so Wegberg-Beeck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Frechen and 1.8 for Wegberg-Beeck (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frechen are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.38 for Wegberg-Beeck. This match finished 2-4.

Frechen vs Wegberg-Beeck Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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