Today / Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein / Bergisch G. vs SF Duren

Bergisch G. vs SF Duren Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 28 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 13:00

Bergisch G.

PPG 2.31 · HOME

7 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

SF Duren

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.31), Away POOR (0.31) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.4%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.9%1-11.7%1-20.8%1-30.2%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.4%2-13.9%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.7%3-16.0%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-027.4%4+-124.5%4+-211.0%4+-33.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.2% — — —

Draw 17.1% — — —

Away win 7.7% — — —

Over 2.5 79.0% — — —

Over 3.5 79.5% — — —

BTTS 58.9% — — —

Home O1.5 94.3% — — —

Away O1.5 22.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-1

xG (home)4.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob58.9%

H 75% / xG 4.6-0.9 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 7.7%

#2 5–0 7.0%

#3 4–1 6.9%

#4 3–0 6.7%

#5 5–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bergisch G.4.6

SF Duren0.9

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 79.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BERGISCH G. · PPG 2.31

SF DUREN · PPG 0.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.31), Away POOR (0.31) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bergisch G. (H) 75.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SF Duren (A) 7.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bergisch G. face SF Duren in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bergisch G. a 75% chance, the draw 17% and SF Duren 8%, so Bergisch G. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.6 for Bergisch G. and 0.9 for SF Duren (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bergisch G. are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 0.31 for SF Duren. This match finished 7-1.

Bergisch G. vs SF Duren Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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