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U. Catolica vs Colo-Colo Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 22:00

U. Catolica

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Colo-Colo

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.1%0-25.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.1%1-111.6%1-28.4%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.4%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.8%3-14.0%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 41.3% 2.42 -10.9%

Draw 26.0% 30.8% 3.25 -9.3%

Away win 37.2% 37.0% 2.70 +0.4%

Over 2.5 58.5% 47.6% 2.10 +22.9%

Over 3.5 32.6% 26.7% 3.75 +22.3%

BTTS 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

A 37% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2✓ 8.4%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. Catolica1.4

Colo-Colo1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

U. CATOLICA · PPG 2.00

COLO-COLO · PPG 2.40

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

57%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.40)

Win probability 1X2

U. Catolica (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -10.9%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.3%

Colo-Colo (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. Catolica face Colo-Colo in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. Catolica a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Colo-Colo 37%, so Colo-Colo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for U. Catolica and 1.4 for Colo-Colo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. Catolica are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.40 for Colo-Colo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 1-2.

U. Catolica vs Colo-Colo Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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