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Atletico MG W vs Ferroviaria W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 21:00

Atletico MG W

PPG 0.80 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Ferroviaria W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-114.5%0-27.8%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.5%1-113.5%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.8%2-16.2%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.8%3-11.9%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 20.8% 4.80 +53.6%

Draw 31.9% 28.6% 3.50 +11.7%

Away win 36.1% 60.6% 1.65 -40.4%

Over 2.5 40.3% 54.1% 1.85 -25.4%

Over 3.5 14.3% 32.3% 3.10 -33.4%

BTTS 48.6% 57.1% 1.75 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.6%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.5%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico MG W0.9

Ferroviaria W1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 14.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MG W · PPG 0.80

FERROVIARIA W · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.80), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico MG W (H) 32.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +53.6%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +11.7%

Ferroviaria W (A) 36.1%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -40.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico MG W face Ferroviaria W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico MG W a 32% chance, the draw 32% and Ferroviaria W 36%, so Ferroviaria W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Atletico MG W and 1.1 for Ferroviaria W (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico MG W are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Ferroviaria W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +53.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Atletico MG W vs Ferroviaria W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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