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Brusque vs Anapolis Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 19:30

Brusque

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Anapolis

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5% — a clear edge.

+12.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-13.4%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.9%1-17.8%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-18.8%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.0%3-16.6%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.6%4+-16.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.1% 59.5% 1.68 +12.7%

Draw 23.0% 29.9% 3.35 -13.8%

Away win 9.9% 20.8% 4.80 -31.5%

Over 2.5 56.6% 48.8% 2.05 +16.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 27.4% 3.65 +17.9%

BTTS 48.6% 52.4% 1.91 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 67% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 1–0✓ 12.9%

#3 3–0 11.0%

#4 1–1 7.8%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brusque2.3

Anapolis0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUSQUE · PPG 3.00

ANAPOLIS · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Brusque (H) 67.1%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +12.7%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.8%

Anapolis (A) 9.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brusque face Anapolis in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brusque a 67% chance, the draw 23% and Anapolis 10%, so Brusque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Brusque and 0.6 for Anapolis (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brusque are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Anapolis. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Brusque vs Anapolis Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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