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La Serena vs D. Limache Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 19:00

La Serena

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

D. Limache

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.8%0-28.3%0-34.7%0-4+2.9%1 1-06.7%1-111.3%1-29.6%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.8%2-16.5%2-25.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.5%3-12.5%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% 41.3% 2.42 -18.9%

Draw 26.4% 29.0% 3.45 -5.3%

Away win 45.3% 38.8% 2.58 +16.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 55.6% 1.80 -3.0%

Over 3.5 31.9% 33.9% 2.95 -5.9%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

La Serena1.2

D. Limache1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LA SERENA · PPG 1.50

D. LIMACHE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

La Serena (H) 28.3%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -18.9%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.3%

D. Limache (A) 45.3%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

La Serena face D. Limache in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives La Serena a 28% chance, the draw 26% and D. Limache 45%, so D. Limache are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for La Serena and 1.7 for D. Limache (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, La Serena are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for D. Limache. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 4-1.

La Serena vs D. Limache Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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