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Concepcion vs Huachipato Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 16:30

Concepcion

PPG 0.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Huachipato

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Away 38% chance

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 29.9% — a clear edge.

+87.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-114.5%0-211.8%0-36.4%0-4+3.8%1 1-07.0%1-111.4%1-29.3%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-02.8%2-14.5%2-23.7%2-32.0%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.7%3-11.2%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.0% 47.6% 2.10 -38.6%

Draw 27.0% 31.3% 3.20 -8.2%

Away win 56.0% 29.9% 3.35 +87.6%

Over 2.5 47.6% 46.5% 2.15 +2.3%

Over 3.5 22.7% 25.3% 3.95 -6.2%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob49.2%

A 56% / xG 0.8-1.6 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 0–1 14.5%

#3 0–2 11.8%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 1–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concepcion0.8

Huachipato1.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCEPCION · PPG 0.40

HUACHIPATO · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

38%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs Home POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Concepcion (H) 17.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -38.6%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.2%

Huachipato (A) 56.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +87.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Concepcion face Huachipato in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concepcion a 17% chance, the draw 27% and Huachipato 56%, so Huachipato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Concepcion and 1.6 for Huachipato (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concepcion are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 1.17 for Huachipato. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +87.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Concepcion vs Huachipato Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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