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Dziugas Telsiai vs TransINVEST Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:00

Dziugas Telsiai

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

TransINVEST

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-111.8%0-28.0%0-33.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.4%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.1%2-16.9%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.8%3-12.5%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 34.7% 2.88 -8.7%

Draw 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -8.3%

Away win 41.4% 45.5% 2.20 -8.9%

Over 2.5 47.6% 59.9% 1.67 -20.5%

Over 3.5 23.0% 38.2% 2.62 -23.8%

BTTS 51.6% 63.7% 1.57 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob51.6%

A 41% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dziugas Telsiai1.1

TransINVEST1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DZIUGAS TELSIAI · PPG 1.50

TRANSINVEST · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

Dziugas Telsiai (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -8.7%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.3%

TransINVEST (A) 41.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dziugas Telsiai face TransINVEST in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dziugas Telsiai a 32% chance, the draw 27% and TransINVEST 41%, so TransINVEST are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dziugas Telsiai and 1.4 for TransINVEST (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dziugas Telsiai are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.86 for TransINVEST. This match finished 3-2.

Dziugas Telsiai vs TransINVEST Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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