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Panevezys vs Banga Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:00

Panevezys

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Banga

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-117.3%0-211.7%0-35.3%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.9%1-112.2%1-28.3%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-03.1%2-14.3%2-22.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.7%3-11.0%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.7% 39.2% 2.55 -23.7%

Draw 29.1% 29.9% 3.35 -1.5%

Away win 47.2% 41.7% 2.40 +13.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 55.6% 1.80 -16.8%

Over 3.5 15.4% 33.3% 3.00 -32.3%

BTTS 48.6% 61.7% 1.62 -21.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob48.6%

A 47% / xG 0.7-1.4 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.3%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–2 11.7%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Panevezys0.7

Banga1.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PANEVEZYS · PPG 1.50

BANGA · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Panevezys (H) 23.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -23.7%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.5%

Banga (A) 47.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Panevezys face Banga in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Panevezys a 24% chance, the draw 29% and Banga 47%, so Banga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Panevezys and 1.4 for Banga (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Panevezys are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.57 for Banga. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Panevezys vs Banga Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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