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Oskarshamns vs Karlskrona Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 13:00

Oskarshamns

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Karlskrona

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.3%0-21.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.7%1-16.2%1-24.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.4%2-18.5%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.9%3-17.8%3-25.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-110.4%4+-26.9%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 41.7% 2.40 +41.6%

Draw 20.7% 29.9% 3.35 -18.4%

Away win 20.3% 38.5% 2.60 -28.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 59.9% 1.67 +6.7%

Over 3.5 58.0% 37.7% 2.65 +53.7%

BTTS 62.5% 65.4% 1.53 -4.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.5%

H 59% / xG 2.7-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 6.2%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 3–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oskarshamns2.7

Karlskrona1.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 58.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OSKARSHAMNS · PPG 3.00

KARLSKRONA · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (3.00) > Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Oskarshamns (H) 59.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +41.6%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -18.4%

Karlskrona (A) 20.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oskarshamns face Karlskrona in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oskarshamns a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Karlskrona 20%, so Oskarshamns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Oskarshamns and 1.3 for Karlskrona (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oskarshamns are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.25 for Karlskrona. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +53.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Oskarshamns vs Karlskrona Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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