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Lilla Torg vs Berga Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 12:00

Lilla Torg

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Berga

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+17.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-115.2%0-213.5%0-37.9%0-4+5.3%1 1-05.9%1-110.4%1-29.2%1-35.4%1-4+3.6%2 2-02.0%2-13.6%2-23.2%2-31.9%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 30.3% 3.30 -31.9%

Draw 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -7.5%

Away win 61.5% 52.4% 1.91 +17.5%

Over 2.5 47.6% 62.5% 1.60 -23.8%

Over 3.5 23.3% 40.8% 2.45 -25.8%

BTTS 48.6% 66.7% 1.50 -27.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.6%

A 62% / xG 0.7-1.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.2%

#2 0–2 13.5%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lilla Torg0.7

Berga1.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLA TORG · PPG 1.25

BERGA · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Lilla Torg (H) 14.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -31.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.5%

Berga (A) 61.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lilla Torg face Berga in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lilla Torg a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Berga 62%, so Berga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Lilla Torg and 1.8 for Berga (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lilla Torg are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.00 for Berga. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Lilla Torg vs Berga Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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