← Back to picks 
Lithuania - A Lyga Sunday, May 24, 2026 11:15 
Zalgiris PPG 1.43 
Hegelmann L. PPG 0.40
Lithuania - A Lyga Sunday, May 24, 2026 11:15 Zalgiris PPG 1.431-3 MISS
Hegelmann L. PPG 0.40Away· +16.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 50.2% Odds: 1.70 -14.7%
Over 3.5 25.9% Odds: 2.75 -17.3%
BTTS 51.1% Odds: 1.80 -8.0%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-0 ✘
3rd 1-0 ✘
4th 2-1 ✘
5th 0-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Zalgiris 1.79
Hegelmann L. 0.78
Model Suggestion
Home -22.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -22.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+16.9%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+16.9%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=53.2%