Today / Lithuania - A Lyga / Zalgiris vs Hegelmann L.

Zalgiris vs Hegelmann L. Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 11:15

Zalgiris

PPG 1.43 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Hegelmann L.

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-15.9%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.7%1-110.7%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.7%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 69.0% 1.45 -22.9%

Draw 24.7% 24.4% 4.10 +0.8%

Away win 22.1% 17.2% 5.80 +16.9%

Over 2.5 50.2% 58.8% 1.70 -14.7%

Over 3.5 25.9% 36.4% 2.75 -17.3%

BTTS 51.1% 55.6% 1.80 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.1%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zalgiris1.8

Hegelmann L.0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ZALGIRIS · PPG 1.43

HEGELMANN L. · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Zalgiris (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -22.9%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.8%

Hegelmann L. (A) 22.1%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zalgiris face Hegelmann L. in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zalgiris a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Hegelmann L. 22%, so Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Zalgiris and 0.8 for Hegelmann L. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zalgiris are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.40 for Hegelmann L.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Zalgiris vs Hegelmann L. Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - A Lyga Predictions