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Karlslund vs Nacka Iliria Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 11:00

Karlslund

PPG 0.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Nacka Iliria

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-114.0%0-27.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.3%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.4%2-16.6%2-23.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.1%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.8% 33.9% 2.95 -0.3%

Draw 31.8% 27.4% 3.65 +16.1%

Away win 34.4% 48.8% 2.05 -29.5%

Over 2.5 37.0% 64.5% 1.55 -42.6%

Over 3.5 14.1% 42.0% 2.38 -39.9%

BTTS 48.6% 69.0% 1.45 -29.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 1–0 13.3%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlslund1.0

Nacka Iliria1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSLUND · PPG 0.67

NACKA ILIRIA · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.67) > Away POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Karlslund (H) 33.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -0.3%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +16.1%

Nacka Iliria (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -29.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlslund face Nacka Iliria in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlslund a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Nacka Iliria 34%, so Nacka Iliria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Karlslund and 1.0 for Nacka Iliria (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlslund are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.25 for Nacka Iliria. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Karlslund vs Nacka Iliria Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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