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Melbourne K. vs North Geelong Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 05:00

Melbourne K.

PPG 2.71 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

North Geelong

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.71), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-11.8%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.6%1-15.3%1-22.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.9%2-18.1%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-18.1%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-015.7%4+-112.8%4+-25.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.5% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 9.2% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 53.2% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 68% / xG 3.0-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.9%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 2–1✓ 8.1%

#5 4–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne K.3.0

North Geelong0.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE K. · PPG 2.71

NORTH GEELONG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.71), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne K. (H) 68.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

North Geelong (A) 9.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne K. face North Geelong in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne K. a 69% chance, the draw 22% and North Geelong 9%, so Melbourne K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Melbourne K. and 0.8 for North Geelong (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne K. are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.00 for North Geelong. This match finished 2-1.

Melbourne K. vs North Geelong Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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